Pan-Am Games / Puerto Vallarta - Oct. 23

startlist can be foundhere

With the winner grabbing a coveted Olympic spot for their country, this Pan-Am Championship will be a tactical affair. Canada, USA, Brazil, and Mexico will all be looking to get the win and may employ team tactics to do so.

A non-wetsuit choppy swim should help the strong swimmers seperate themselves. With a rolling chop, any gap presented can grow quite quickly. Look for Farias (ARG) or Gonzalez (CUB) to lead the guys out in T1. I feel there will be a group of 8-10 players out with a 30s gap.

This lead group will need to be aware of who is there to work and who is there to not. If Fretta (USA), Garza (MEX) and/or a Brazilian makes the pack, they likely will be there to slow the pace up to have their 'targeted countrymen' bridge up and challenge on the run for the win. It will be up to the others in the group to keep these aforementioned athletes at the back and work themselves to keep the pace hot.

The bike course does and does not suit a breakaway. There are many out and back sections not allowing the pack to get out of sight. However the route is technical which favours a smaller group. The lead pack will have strong technical riders in there as well with McMahon (CAN) likely to be leading them through the corners.

My gut tells me the packs will merge about midway through. A lot of games will then ensue with countries trying to get any edge they can into T2. I see the pack staying relatively together and this being decided on the 10k.

Coming off a strong performance in Huatulco, Chrabot (USA) has a good record at running in Mexico and its tough conditions. Canadians Jones and McMahon have also shown good run form in hot weather this season. Then you have substitute Huerta (USA) who is a major threat and could seal the deal as well. Throw in Colucci (BRA), Grajales (MEX) and Butterfield (BER) and you have a race!

A group of 10 will run the opening lap together. Then things will heat up and the group will whittle its way down to 4 by the final mile.

This is a very tough one to call but I feel Jones (CAN), after a frustrating month of September, will unleash a strong performance to take the Win followed by Chrabot (USA) and Huerta (USA).

Darkhorse: Taccone (ARG), Butterfield (BER)