Saturday, 27 August 2011

Vila Velha CC PATCO Sprint Champs - August 28

Startlist can be found here

Have lost routine with staying on top of races, need to get back to it, no excuses.

With ITU points on the line for 2 sprint races in each continent this season Vila Velha acts as the second PATCO sprint and its championships.

Even with the swim being shorter I think we still see a gap of 15out of the water from Farias (ARG) and Fernandes (BRA). With it being an ocean swim I feel the gap may be even more depending on surf levels given Farias's Buenos Aires beach roots.

Onto the bike these two will be motivated to stay away as 30s+ off the bike is what they would need for the win. Although the motivation will be high I do not see them staying away from a high powered chase of Sclebin, Moriera, Carvalho (BRA), and Perciado (COL) to name a few.

Coming into T2 together as group of 12-15 we'll see Perciado (COL) take the pace out hard over the first k with Carvlho (BRA). Sclebin (BRA) tends to build his run like a freight train, but he may run out of room if left to late.

I feel we see Sclebin still take the win with Cavanha Conceicao in second and Carvalho rounding out the Brazilian Sweep.

Darkhorse: Pimentel (BRA)

Sunday, 14 August 2011

Tiszaujvaros WC - Aug 14th

Startlist can be found here

Apologies for anyone following this blog for the missed post for the biggest and baddest race of the year in London. I completly forgot.

On to this weekend and we have a quite a even field in Tizzy for the 15th rendition of this World Cup.

A calm water non-wetsuit should be a congested affair with tight turns and exits. There are not a lot of fish in this field but still enough to push a good swim. Expect to see the Salvisberg brothers (SUI), I.Polyanskiy (RUS), Kerr (AUS), Vanek (HUN) and McMahon (CAN) near the front at the exit.

The bike features a 5k'ish length transfer from the lake to loops in the town. This section is often critical to the rest of the bike portion regarding groups. If a front group out of the water can hold the chase at bay till this point we could see it stick. With a boisterous hungarian crowd on hand, the number of hungarians in the front group could raise its chances to stay away. Key factors to a front group staying away are the swims of bike powerhouses Pais (POR) and Rana (ESP) and Sclebin (BRA).

I think we see a large group roll into T2 on this run and the race becoming a 10k around the city streets. With narrow sections the run can become a strategic affair. On to the podium i think we see Hug (SUI), Huerta (USA) and Sharp (GBR) do the honours.

Darkhorses: Murry (RSA), Hofer (ITA)