Thursday 8 September 2011

Beijing GF - U23 Men

Over the course of the weekend I will try to preview each of the elite fields in the World Champs / WCS Grand Finale.

Up first we have an exciting U23 Men field that boasts a lot of progressing talent. A great lineup to kick start the Championships.

Using the same Field of Play as the 2008 Olympic Games the course is tough with muggy conditions. The swim will be 1 lap non-wetsuit, 6 lap hilly bike, finishing with a 4 lap run.

The original U23M startlist had some serious fish in Varga (SVK) and Raphael (FRA), unfortunate injuries to both athletes have taken them off the startline. I feel there is still enough muscle however to get a break going. The 1 lap swim with a long distance to the first turn bouy plays in favour for the stronger swimmers and will help to form a group of 15 out of the water. Swim honours should go to either Salvisberg (SUI), LeCorre (FRA), Sharpe (CAN) or Vasilev (RUS), whomever really wants it....never doubt a motivated russian so lets go with Vasilev.

Expect Vasilev to absolutley hammer the opening stages of the ride with others in tow. The chase group which should be down roughly 30s will have a tough time eating into the lead group over the first few laps. It will be from laps 4-6 where gains could be made if an efficient unit is orchestrated.

The lead group will have the main contenders, which is essentially the entire British squad and Polyanskiy (RUS). However they will still be wary of the chase which will hold some serious run threats in Loeschke (GER), Billington (USA), Robbins (AUS) and Diemunsch (FRA).

I do not see the chase merging with our front group. The leaders will look to have 1' coming into T2.

Onto the run I think we see a strong British contingent leading out. The one aspect that the Brits may lack is acclimation to the muggy heat. I'd like to call a British sweep but I'll break it up with a Russian in there.

Podium: 1. Bishop (GBR) 2. Sharp (GBR) 3. Polyanskiy (RUS)

Darkhorse: Robbins (AUS)

1 comment:

  1. "I'd like to call a British sweep but I'll break it up with a Russian in there"

    Should have stuck with your gut feeling A-Russ!

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