MENS
Startlist can be found here
Biggest ITU event of the season gets underway in Tasmania this weekend. With the winner of the Mens and Womens races earning an Olympic spot for their country this one should be quite a tactical and exhilarating affair.
It is not as easy as winning however. Each country will ideally want to have their third ranked Olympic athlete win the race. This will give them the best chance of qualifying 3 athletes to the games. However, this 3rd ranked athlete may not be fit enough to beat the other countries top athletes, there in lies the madness. If we look at it in that prespective the Aussies will be looking for Sexton or Atkinson and the kiwis for Gemmell.
A chilly wetsuit swim will get things rolling. The Aussies have the upperhand here with some strong fish likely to push the pace in Amberger and Seear. The trio of Amberger/Seear/Atkinson will look to replicate their Mooloolaba 2010 performance. Out of the water Amberger should be leading the lads into T1. I expected a break to be somewhere around the 6th athlete but it will not be much (10-15s).
The flat/tech bike may not lend well to this group staying away for very long. There could be a lot of discussion on the sidelines from TA in the first lap. McCormack (AUS) will likely dictate the chase group pace along with a host of kiwis (Davison,Gemmell,Elvery) if a break exists.
I see there being too much to lose for any sort of gap to exist off the bike to a contender here. Even if legs are spent by some, this things is coming together before the end of 40k.
Off the bike is where things get interesting. Docherty may be running the best at the moment but as mentioned, a Gemmell W would be more preferred. I think the pace on the bike should be high enough that we see the stronger athletes perform better over this 10k. We should have a solid running pack: Gemmell, Atkinson, McCormack, Docherty, Sexton, Sissons, Royle, Dodds, Ellice and others should all be out of T2 up front.
Expect Sexton to lift the pace right away to try and burn off some kiwi. He may get a gap initially but I see it being reeled in after 5k. The back half of the run will be a battle
where some experience and strength may prevail.
At the line it is quite a tough call but I have:
Gemmell, Sissons, Sexton
Darkhorse: Dodds, Royle, Ellice
WOMEN
Startlist can be found here
In the womens event the fight for the Olympic spot is less important. Both Aussie and Kiwi are essentially assured 3 spots for women.
The 400 ITU/Olympic points up for first though are still incentive for early season starts.
On this one the Kiwi's have the stronger swimmers. Expect Adams (NZL) to lead the women back to beach with Samuels, Tanner, and maybe Jackson in tow. We should see a gap to Gentle out of the water which with a smallish field could stick throughout the race.
Onto the bike Adam again will lead the pace with Samuels. These two have enough horsepower to get away if the others in the front swim pack aren't attentive and quick out of T2.
I do see a group of 2-4 (Adams,Samuels,Tanner,Jackson) getting away here and growing a gap to the chase. Off the bike we could see upwards of 90s.
On the run Jackson will take it out quick with Tanner and Samuels holding on by a thread. As the 10k unravels, Jackson should get away and leave Tanner and Samuels to hold on to silver and bronze. Gentle and Densham, if running very well and no more than 90s behind off the bike, could run up to contend for the podium.
I see the podium as:
Jackson, Tanner, Densham
Darkhorse: Bailie
No comments:
Post a Comment