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This race hosts some interesting features to it. A tough hilly bike and run combined with an elevation of over 6200ft could really play into the hands of athletes who are acclimated.
Gonzalez (CUB) should lead the swim out with Collins and Vandam (USA) on his feet. The three could have a gap out of the water and will look for some other strong cyclist to bridge up over the opening laps of the bike. Quinchara and Perciado (COL) as well as Garza (MEX) could be athletes who play this tactic.
The chase will be a large pack but could become splintered if athletes start to attack over the hills.
Into T2 I feel the lead group should have 90+ seconds on the chase.
On the run look for Quinchara (COL) to get away early and have Collins (USA) and Perciado (COL) round out the podium.
With this doubling as a World Cup in November, it will be interesting to see the race unfolds.
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