Male
Startlist can found here
First Continental Cup of 2012 hosts a fairly competitive field of athletes from 3 continents. All will be looking to get an early start on ITU pts.
Ocean wetsuit swim with minor chop should result in a main pack emerging together out of the water. With a wetsuit on, Varga (SVK) seems to even swim faster relative to the field as seen in Kitzbuhel and Hamburg. Leading this one out will not be a question, with Farias (ARG), and Collins (USA) on the heels. This group of 3 with perhaps a few others ( Saucedo and Meija [MEX] ) could carry a decent gap onto the bike
This small break group should be off the front for a bit but with motivated 'fresh' euros in the chase things should become conglomerated. Athletes will need to acute to hazards on the bike. Stray dogs, deraileur sucking bags, and holes will add to the randomness of a South American race.
Off the bike the field should be tight for the first lap. After 3k I think we see the euros [Fidalgo,Alarza (ESP) and Nichols (GBR)] push ahead.
Euro Sweep:
Nichols, Fidalgo, Alarza
Darkhorse:Taccone (ARG)
New Flag Watch: Varga (EURO), Vande and Quinchara (PATCO)
Women
Startlist can be found here
Coming off a big win in La Paz to start the 2012 campaign, Brault (CAN) will be the heavy favourite to make it back to back wins on her South American Tour.
Out of the water Rivas (MEX) and Oliveria (BRA) should get a gap on the others. 30s I'd imagine will be the margin onto the bikes.
A motivated chase will swallow them up though, and the contenders will come into T2 together.
Brault should distance herself early on the run while Widney (CAN), ITU team athlete Bravo (ECU), Sato (JPN) and Rivas battle for the final podium spots.
Brault,Widney,Sato
Darkhorse:Routier (ESP)
New Flag Watch: Bravo, Palacio Balena (ARG)
Saturday, 21 January 2012
Tuesday, 10 January 2012
La Paz Pan-Am Champs - Jan 15
Early start to 2012 and it comes with an important Olympic point race for Pan-American athletes. Four hundred points are on the line and a jumpstart to the season rankings. Even with the event being held in possibly the most obscure spot in the Americas we see fairly good fields for men and women. Weather for the race is somewhat unpredictable, extreme heat or this.
Men
Startlist can be found here.
With the swim being held in a river with significant current the swim could be tactical in the sense of finding the right feed. With experience and hometown support expect Farias (ARG) to lead out of the water. The field has some solid Pan-am swim athletes. This could promote a split or perhaps not as gaps that would be there with a smaller field are being filled. I'd expect a group of 12-14 in the front with just a few contenders left out.
This group will watch its lead grow on the bike with McMahon (CAN), Chacon (CRC), Collins (USA) and Garza (MEX) leading the group through the technical course. With a comfortable gap, I dont see many games being played over the 40k, but if the four aforementioned athletes can put something together, it could be dangerous.
More than likely the run will be a scorcher. Similar to the Pan-Am Games 3 months ago I think we see a similar group of 3-4 athletes together through 5k. Being a first test for 2012 there may be some fliers that have tooken an earlier break and have a headstart on some fitness.
On the podium I think we see Grajales (MEX), Jones (CAN) and Quinchara (COL) in that order.
Wildcard: Butterfield (BER), Verzbicas (USA)
Women
New for this year, I will have a go at the womens fields. Can't promise a whole lot but will give it my best.
In La Paz we see quite a few athletes coming back onto the scene from disappointments in 2011. It will be an important start to a race filled first half of 2012 towards Olympic qualification.
Out of the swim there is no doubt that Pan-Am bronze medalist Oliveira (BRA) will lead the race. Most likely she will be with Duffy (BER) and perhaps Rivas (MEX). A gap of about 20-30s will have formed back to the main pack of 8. Anyone not in this group will either committ suicide on the bike or be out of contention.
It will be interesting to see how the main works together to reel in Oliveira and co. at the start of the ride. If the gap isn't shut down early it wont happen later on and we could see it grow. I feel it will come back with some work and a group of 10-12 come into T2 together.
Over the 10k, smart pacing is key. I feel we see a North American sweep of the podium:
Shiver (USA), Campbell (CAN), Brault (CAN)
Wildcard: Widney (CAN)
Men
Startlist can be found here.
With the swim being held in a river with significant current the swim could be tactical in the sense of finding the right feed. With experience and hometown support expect Farias (ARG) to lead out of the water. The field has some solid Pan-am swim athletes. This could promote a split or perhaps not as gaps that would be there with a smaller field are being filled. I'd expect a group of 12-14 in the front with just a few contenders left out.
This group will watch its lead grow on the bike with McMahon (CAN), Chacon (CRC), Collins (USA) and Garza (MEX) leading the group through the technical course. With a comfortable gap, I dont see many games being played over the 40k, but if the four aforementioned athletes can put something together, it could be dangerous.
More than likely the run will be a scorcher. Similar to the Pan-Am Games 3 months ago I think we see a similar group of 3-4 athletes together through 5k. Being a first test for 2012 there may be some fliers that have tooken an earlier break and have a headstart on some fitness.
On the podium I think we see Grajales (MEX), Jones (CAN) and Quinchara (COL) in that order.
Wildcard: Butterfield (BER), Verzbicas (USA)
Women
New for this year, I will have a go at the womens fields. Can't promise a whole lot but will give it my best.
In La Paz we see quite a few athletes coming back onto the scene from disappointments in 2011. It will be an important start to a race filled first half of 2012 towards Olympic qualification.
Out of the swim there is no doubt that Pan-Am bronze medalist Oliveira (BRA) will lead the race. Most likely she will be with Duffy (BER) and perhaps Rivas (MEX). A gap of about 20-30s will have formed back to the main pack of 8. Anyone not in this group will either committ suicide on the bike or be out of contention.
It will be interesting to see how the main works together to reel in Oliveira and co. at the start of the ride. If the gap isn't shut down early it wont happen later on and we could see it grow. I feel it will come back with some work and a group of 10-12 come into T2 together.
Over the 10k, smart pacing is key. I feel we see a North American sweep of the podium:
Shiver (USA), Campbell (CAN), Brault (CAN)
Wildcard: Widney (CAN)
Thursday, 15 December 2011
Mauritius CC - Dec 17
Startlist can be found here
Last ITU race for 2011. When you factor in that pts are cut to 1/3 in new year I find it really hard to reason why you would travel to Mauritius to race, other than for a holiday. Nevertheless every point counts.
A lagoon swim will produce calm and bouyant waters which should yield a fast swim. Expect Ji (KOR) to lead things out with Toft (DEN) on his feet.
Whether the swim breaks up or not there should be a group of 8ish formed early on in the bike. With warm/humid temperatures and a even matched field I don't really see things shaking up too much on the bike unless Toft and Bai (CHN) can pump the pace and reduce the group a bit. This will ultimately come down to the 10k.
Bai (CHN) with experience and results running in humid conditions will take the win here. Hollaus should take silver unless he fails to make the group out of the water and Naude (RSA) who has looked more impressive as of late and will take bronze.
Darkhorse: Anyone else
Last ITU race for 2011. When you factor in that pts are cut to 1/3 in new year I find it really hard to reason why you would travel to Mauritius to race, other than for a holiday. Nevertheless every point counts.
A lagoon swim will produce calm and bouyant waters which should yield a fast swim. Expect Ji (KOR) to lead things out with Toft (DEN) on his feet.
Whether the swim breaks up or not there should be a group of 8ish formed early on in the bike. With warm/humid temperatures and a even matched field I don't really see things shaking up too much on the bike unless Toft and Bai (CHN) can pump the pace and reduce the group a bit. This will ultimately come down to the 10k.
Bai (CHN) with experience and results running in humid conditions will take the win here. Hollaus should take silver unless he fails to make the group out of the water and Naude (RSA) who has looked more impressive as of late and will take bronze.
Darkhorse: Anyone else
Wednesday, 23 November 2011
Pretoria CC - Nov 27th
start list can be found here
A similar cast here in Pretoria as last weekend in Troutbeck with some key additions who will make this a better all round race. Although not quite as high as Troutbeck, Pretoria is still at about 4200ft so heavy breathing will still remain a factor.
The course looks to be a 2lap lake swim (no wetsuit?), 2 lap hilly bike and the usual 4 lapper run.
Wolfaardt (RSA) will be deemed the favourite for this one, coming off a win last week in the aforementioned Troutbeck African Cup. However, as suggested, some additions to the field in this race will make things a bit spicier for the Wolfman.
Out of the water this one will be led out by fishy youngster Schoeman (RSA). Louw (NIM) will do well to catch Schoeman's feet early and just follow the bubbles. I see this group of two getting a gap on the chase pack which will be lead by De Falbaire (MRI). The chase will likely include Wolfarrdt, Felgate (ZIM), Pocsia and Fecskovics(HUN), and Blignaut and Naude (RSA). Guys who don't make this group are in for a long day I'm afraid.
With the bike being just 2 laps and featuring a significant climb, Louw has the opportunity to solo this bike. No joke. The real deal as showcased in Lausanne Sprint Champs where he shared a lot of work with the BBoys up front. I say Schoeman drops off back to the chase and Louw solo's to a 90' lead off the bike.
Now, here is where things get interesting. It seems with each Senior race Louw's 10k has been getting stronger. From the chase, Fecskovics, Felgate, and Wolfaardt will have the best run legs. Edge to Fecskovics with not having raced 7 days ago.
I feel Louw holds on for the Win stuffing it to the pack while Fecskovics takes silver and Wolfaardt the bronze.
Darkhorse: Pocsai (HUN)
Can't wait for ITU to get results up.....be checking here
A similar cast here in Pretoria as last weekend in Troutbeck with some key additions who will make this a better all round race. Although not quite as high as Troutbeck, Pretoria is still at about 4200ft so heavy breathing will still remain a factor.
The course looks to be a 2lap lake swim (no wetsuit?), 2 lap hilly bike and the usual 4 lapper run.
Wolfaardt (RSA) will be deemed the favourite for this one, coming off a win last week in the aforementioned Troutbeck African Cup. However, as suggested, some additions to the field in this race will make things a bit spicier for the Wolfman.
Out of the water this one will be led out by fishy youngster Schoeman (RSA). Louw (NIM) will do well to catch Schoeman's feet early and just follow the bubbles. I see this group of two getting a gap on the chase pack which will be lead by De Falbaire (MRI). The chase will likely include Wolfarrdt, Felgate (ZIM), Pocsia and Fecskovics(HUN), and Blignaut and Naude (RSA). Guys who don't make this group are in for a long day I'm afraid.
With the bike being just 2 laps and featuring a significant climb, Louw has the opportunity to solo this bike. No joke. The real deal as showcased in Lausanne Sprint Champs where he shared a lot of work with the BBoys up front. I say Schoeman drops off back to the chase and Louw solo's to a 90' lead off the bike.
Now, here is where things get interesting. It seems with each Senior race Louw's 10k has been getting stronger. From the chase, Fecskovics, Felgate, and Wolfaardt will have the best run legs. Edge to Fecskovics with not having raced 7 days ago.
I feel Louw holds on for the Win stuffing it to the pack while Fecskovics takes silver and Wolfaardt the bronze.
Darkhorse: Pocsai (HUN)
Can't wait for ITU to get results up.....be checking here
Wednesday, 16 November 2011
Troutbeck CC - Nov 19th
Startlist can be found here
The start of the late season African Cherry Picks starts this weekend with Troutbeck. At over 6000ft. Troutbeck will serve up some serious altitude to the startlist of 9 men.
Should be a simple race. De Falbaire (MRI) should lead out the swim with Wolfaardt (RSA), Felgate (ZIM) [may not start to sickness] and perhaps Naude (RSA). The chase will be headed by Jefferson (USA) and Nour (EGY).
The leaders will not want to mess around too much on the bike as Jefferson is the best runner in the field.
Gap off the bikes might be 60-80s.
Podium looks like: Wolfaardt 1st, Jefferson 2nd, Felgate 3rd [if starts] / De Falbaire else.
Darkhorse: Nour (EGY)
The start of the late season African Cherry Picks starts this weekend with Troutbeck. At over 6000ft. Troutbeck will serve up some serious altitude to the startlist of 9 men.
Should be a simple race. De Falbaire (MRI) should lead out the swim with Wolfaardt (RSA), Felgate (ZIM) [may not start to sickness] and perhaps Naude (RSA). The chase will be headed by Jefferson (USA) and Nour (EGY).
The leaders will not want to mess around too much on the bike as Jefferson is the best runner in the field.
Gap off the bikes might be 60-80s.
Podium looks like: Wolfaardt 1st, Jefferson 2nd, Felgate 3rd [if starts] / De Falbaire else.
Darkhorse: Nour (EGY)
Auckland WC - Nov 20th
Startlist can be found here
Auckland will host the final World Cup of 2011 on the North island this Sunday. The host country will boast 11 athletes on the line in hopes of pleasing what should be a large local crowd with a win.
Wetsuit harbour swim should bring the lads back to shore in a large group. Varga (SVK) with the lead out unless a spirited kiwi such as McNeice or Elvery (NZL) has intentions to get the party started early.
What has been deemed a proper bike loop should test the legs for strength and power on the 8 lap circuit. Again, expect a few all-blacks to take a crack at something. Davison, Elvery, Gemmel (NZL) will all be on the lookout for a break. Judging by the length of the longest hill (500m), you are looking at a 80s interval or so. That is enough to cause some seperation in a large group. I see some shrapnel coming off the group into the later stages of the ride and the group coming into T2 as 20 or so.
With regards to late season form there seems to be some variance. Vidal (FRA) looks to holding good, Docherty (NZL) has not raced since a Yokohama DNF, and Rana (ESP) has been racing everything in sight with consistent mid-form. Hugget (AUS) makes his return to racing after a injury filled season, and Sissons (NZL) seems to have already taken the break and now building back towards 2012.
That being said i feel we still a lot of the familar faces towards the front of the run. I feel we see Sissons take his first major win sending the crowd into a frenzy with Docherty just behind in 2nd and Shoemaker having his best result this season with 3rd.
Darkhorse: Fisher (AUS)
New Flag Watch:
Asia: Heo (KOR) vs. Gagg (KAZ) , Europe: Banti (MON) vs. Stojanovic (SRB), Pan-Am: Butterfield (BER), Africa: Essadiq (MAR)
Auckland will host the final World Cup of 2011 on the North island this Sunday. The host country will boast 11 athletes on the line in hopes of pleasing what should be a large local crowd with a win.
Wetsuit harbour swim should bring the lads back to shore in a large group. Varga (SVK) with the lead out unless a spirited kiwi such as McNeice or Elvery (NZL) has intentions to get the party started early.
What has been deemed a proper bike loop should test the legs for strength and power on the 8 lap circuit. Again, expect a few all-blacks to take a crack at something. Davison, Elvery, Gemmel (NZL) will all be on the lookout for a break. Judging by the length of the longest hill (500m), you are looking at a 80s interval or so. That is enough to cause some seperation in a large group. I see some shrapnel coming off the group into the later stages of the ride and the group coming into T2 as 20 or so.
With regards to late season form there seems to be some variance. Vidal (FRA) looks to holding good, Docherty (NZL) has not raced since a Yokohama DNF, and Rana (ESP) has been racing everything in sight with consistent mid-form. Hugget (AUS) makes his return to racing after a injury filled season, and Sissons (NZL) seems to have already taken the break and now building back towards 2012.
That being said i feel we still a lot of the familar faces towards the front of the run. I feel we see Sissons take his first major win sending the crowd into a frenzy with Docherty just behind in 2nd and Shoemaker having his best result this season with 3rd.
Darkhorse: Fisher (AUS)
New Flag Watch:
Asia: Heo (KOR) vs. Gagg (KAZ) , Europe: Banti (MON) vs. Stojanovic (SRB), Pan-Am: Butterfield (BER), Africa: Essadiq (MAR)
Panama CC - Nov 20th
Startlist can be found here
A very scenic course near Panama City offers up a late season Pan-Am Cup. A late season race like this can be hit or miss with performances as some athletes have extended their race schedule too long while others may be just reaching form from earlier injuries. It will also mark the return of Victor Plata (USA) to ITU racing, veteran amongst vets, and the emergence of Leo Chacon's little bro, Rafael, to senior racing.
On this card there does not seem to be a standout swimmer. The non-wetsuit ocean swim should be pushed by Lamar and Lutz (USA), Lobo (VEN) and Cuevas (DOM) if he has regained some of his previous form. These quartet may have a bit of a gap coming out of the water and onto the bikes. Add on a few bridgers, such as Arias (COL) and Perez and Fischer (VEN), and you have a threat on this bike.
The 2 lap rolling bike course could offer the advantage to the lead group of 'out of site out of mind'. Any sort of chase group in this race I feel will be underpowered and unmotivated to close.
Off the bikes in T2 Arias will take out the pace with Lobo and Lamar in tail.
Arias should have no issues taking this win with Lobo taking silver and Perez third.
Darkhorse: Plata (USA)
A very scenic course near Panama City offers up a late season Pan-Am Cup. A late season race like this can be hit or miss with performances as some athletes have extended their race schedule too long while others may be just reaching form from earlier injuries. It will also mark the return of Victor Plata (USA) to ITU racing, veteran amongst vets, and the emergence of Leo Chacon's little bro, Rafael, to senior racing.
On this card there does not seem to be a standout swimmer. The non-wetsuit ocean swim should be pushed by Lamar and Lutz (USA), Lobo (VEN) and Cuevas (DOM) if he has regained some of his previous form. These quartet may have a bit of a gap coming out of the water and onto the bikes. Add on a few bridgers, such as Arias (COL) and Perez and Fischer (VEN), and you have a threat on this bike.
The 2 lap rolling bike course could offer the advantage to the lead group of 'out of site out of mind'. Any sort of chase group in this race I feel will be underpowered and unmotivated to close.
Off the bikes in T2 Arias will take out the pace with Lobo and Lamar in tail.
Arias should have no issues taking this win with Lobo taking silver and Perez third.
Darkhorse: Plata (USA)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)